Recently, the war of words between Iran and the Israeli-United States Alliance has moved closer towards actual Military engagement. Iran began "War Games" towards the end of 2011 which lasted into the beginning of 2012 in response to sanctions imposed upon them by the "World Community." The sanctions reportedly came in response to reports released by the United States that Iran was close to developing a functional Nuclear Weapon. These reports were attributed to sources loyal to the United States and Israeli Intelligence Communities, and were based in part on a November 2011 Report released by the International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.) on the subject.
Exeunt Sanity here.
Enter the Fools.
Nevermind that the information provided in the Report released in November of 2011 by the International Atomic Energy Agency contains many points of opinion that actually reverse assessments they made in earlier reports. What is most troubling is that there is actually no new physical evidence to support these new interpretations. However, the Love for the new I.A.E.A Report is not actually universal:
The errors, suspicious attributions, and unreliable information of the past is now the certainty of the present. Apparently enough so that the United States is willing to issue threats of the use of force against the Iranian Government if it does not desist in "developing Nuclear Weapons."
Enter the Madman here.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has not really helped matters either. In response to the ridiculous announcement of parallel joint United States/Israeli Military Exercises, he, and the Cleric Stooges that rule Iran, have made clear threats of military action against the United States/Israeli Forces. The sanctions against Iran, which are mainly political and economic at this point, have arguably hurt the Iranian peoples, but they are not yet coupled with any threat of invasion - at least not at this stage of the debacle.
Enter the Clusterfuck here.
Well, apparently the mutual threats and innuendo being launched about by all parties involved has not been enough to keep everyone satisfied. The mere loose threats of armed conflict could not keep all the characters excited and happy enough, so the parties moved to make the Strait of Hormuz into a Trigger Point. Iran, not wishing to appear weak and sissified, suggested that the increasing of sanctions against them might result in a Blockade of the ever delicious Strait of Hormuz, which is something of a choke-point for all vessels carrying OIL out of the Middle East Region. The United States, also wishing to appear virile, suggested that such an action WOULD result in a military response.
Enter My Half-Assed Opinion.
Now granted, this is all playing out as part of a long-standing play that began roughly around the time that Oil was found in the Middle East. The Early 20th Century actually marked the rise of interest in Middle Eastern Oil, and the British Controlled the Region Politically and Economically for a long long time. When Oil Consumption Gluttons like the United States entered the picture, things really got FUN.
Geopolitics is an ugly beast. While most people in the United States, and the Western World in general believe that ideologies are a big part of Geopolitics, they actually aren't. Mostly, Geopolitical issues and disputes distill down to two major components: Money and Control of Resources. When you look honestly at the concept, not much else really matters to most World Leaders. If they have lots of Money, and they and/or their Citizens feel like they control lots of Resources, they are usually pretty popular with all the people who could oppose them. It's when those other parties start wanting some of that Money and Power, or they appear to lose control of lots of resources that things usually get really Geopolitical.
Oil is a resource that brings Leaders lots of Money and Power, when they are in control of lots of it. Most of the Saudi Arabian Royal Family would be little more than unknown nomads in a Hot Region if Saudi Arabia did not have HUGE RESERVES of Oil to sell to an Oil Hungry World. They also have lots of uninterrupted sunshine to produce Solar Power, but THAT is actually another Post entirely.
Now, without assigning proportioned blame to the parties in this impending Doomsday Conflict, let it suffice to say that all parties are looking for one or more of those two important components of Geopolitics in this situation. The Iranians want more favorable pricing for their Oil, and they want to use less of it to power their archaic Power Grid.
Iran is a country which wishes to Modernize. A large majority of its population is under 40 years of age. This part of the population actually likes having access to things like the Internet, iPods, iPads, and other Western Techno-Toys. While the Islamic led Government of Iran is not entirely happy about that, they profit financially from it, and are willing to tolerate it - as long as it does not threaten their hold on Power. The Problem is that Iran's Power Production is not modern. It does not match their Energy Needs at all, and they end up using a larger portion of their Fossil Fuel Reserves (Oil) for producing Energy than they would like. Thus, they want to move towards using Nuclear Power, which uses no Oil at all, leaving their own Greedy Bastard Leaders to get Rich off Oil Sales, just like their Western Counterparts.
The United States has been salivating over Iranian Oil Reserves for decades. Ever since our Stooge, the Shah of Iran, was removed during the Iranian Islamic Revolution, we have just not been happy. We lost access to all that Oil when he was deposed, and the Iranians have been hesitant to deal with us because we have been doing things like supporting Iraq when Iran and Iraq were at war. Even before, they were a little miffed at us for putting the Shah in power in the first place.
Now Israel has been less than happy with Iran since Iran's Leaders appear to have issues with Israel continuing to Exist. Setting aside the whole tenure of the Arab-Israeli Dispute since the creation of Israel by the League of Nations, let us be content to say that not everyone is happy that Israel has power in the Middle East. Mahmoud Achmedinejad has been an outspoken critic and antagonist of Israel ever since his rise to power in Iran in 2005. Between Achmedinejad and Israel's Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, there is no love lost, nor enough actual sanity to even keep a Burger Stand running sanely. "Bibi" Netanyahu, as some affectionately call him, is a rabid Pit Bull of a Human Being, who would likely, if he were allowed, nuke every Human Being and Animal on Earth who had ever expressed an ill thought about Israel.
Bringing all these parties together, with a Hair Trigger conditional in the potential Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is not the greatest feat of diplomacy or even sanity, that has ever been accomplished. You might expect that World Leaders that command vast Militaries, and with large populations at risk by their decisions, would be extremely cautious in approaching such a situation. Those expectations would be a great overestimation of the both the Wisdom and/or Sanity of the Leaders involved.
None of the Governments involved here have shown great diplomatic savvy, or military restraint over the past decades. The United States entered the Iraq War based on erroneous information about "Weapons of Mass Destruction" being produced and/or hoarded by our former operative, Saddam Hussein. We invaded Iraq based on that erroneous information, and spent more than a Decade there "Establishing Democracy." After our departure in late 2011, we can see that our efforts were truly as bad as the poorly made Crap we often buy now from our Economic Masters, China. A tenuous cease fire that we enforced appears to have fallen apart as soon as the bulk of our Forces left. We DID leave thousands of "Military Contractors" there however, to make certain that the Peace is Sustainable in the Oil Fields, where most of those Contractors now abide.
Oddly enough, Israel seems to be having its own issues, with the country being squeezed by a number of members of the European Union to make concessions to the Palestinians, (who many in Israel say never had a homeland), in exchange for Peace. Polls inside Israel suggest that the Majority of Israeli Citizens may believe that some "Land for Peace" should be tried, but "Bibi" Netanyahu [who is also under investigation along with a number of other Likud Party Members of the Knesset for Corruption] believes that such a deal would destroy the sovereignty of Israel. It kind of, sort of appears that this new Joint Exercise with the United States against Iran would bolster the Netanyahu hold on power, and quiet his critics - at least for a while. Who would dare move further with investigations of Corruption while Israel is dealing with the Iranian Demons who want to destroy them? Can a Goy get a witness here?
So, what might be an actual sane course of action here? Well, maybe for starters, all parties could DIAL BACK THEIR FUCKING RHETORIC? With the questionable nature of the evidence that the United States has about the supposed Iranian Nuclear Program, maybe we should first be INSISTING that a new group of neutral inspectors be gathered together for the I.A.E.A. to do a new round of inspections of Iranian Nuclear Facilities. Many of us would be a lot more comfortable with calling out Iran if there were current and conclusive data from Inspectors on the Ground that Iran was engaging in building Big Bombs. And, if Iran refuses to allow such Inspectors into Iran, we would have a lot clearer reason to be focusing our attention on their activities than the obvious Election Year Bullshit that is driving that right now. If it proves out that Iran is making Big Boom Boom, we would then have all the reason necessary to invade their country, and claim their Oil for our Corporate Masters. [A little SNAP I have thrown in just to remind you WHO is writing this Post]
Next, let's not include Israel in our Military Activities. Given the level of hostility between Israel and Iran, is it really sane to bring these two face to face in a 20 mile wide transportation Choke Point with Missiles in play? We would normally call this kind of strategy FUCKING INSANE, if we were inclined to be honest in response to the actions of our Leaders. Are there no other Allies that could accompany the United States in the Region as we monitor whether or not Iran makes good in its threat to Block the Strait of Hormuz? Since the French have had a relationship with the Iranians in the past, could we not ask THEM to send forces to monitor the situation perhaps?
Lastly, do we really need to be telling the rest of the World at all who can and cannot make Big Boom Boom BY FORCE? There was a point when we actually negotiated with Nations over armaments and aggressions. Now, we have Preemptive War, and Gunboat Diplomacy to take care of our Geopolitical issues and disputes. In the past, when a Nation had attacked lots of innocent neighbors we made War. Now, we make War long before that, and then manipulate the facts afterwards to support our actions.
So, my unsolicited advice to the Directors of this Un-Funny Comedy of Errors is to stop the fireworks, and let the wise men in to evaluate the situation before we make any further moves. It just might be that we can avoid another War, and thousands upon thousands of dead innocents that go along with War, if we take more selective and careful steps that are both measured, and sane. Peace and Compassion to you.
Jeffrey
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